Forex Signals

13Sep
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Epic Research| Forex Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – U.S. Dollar Falls on Disappointing PPI Data
Forex – Sterling down on report of potential leadership challenge to UK’s May
Forex – EUR/USD regains traction and tests 1.1600 post-US PPI

EUR/USD

Spot bounced to the boundaries of the critical 1.1600 handle after US headline Producer Prices surprised markets to the downside in August, contracting for the first time after 18 months at a monthly 0.1% and expanding 2.8% on a yearly basis. In addition, Core Producer Prices dropped 0.1% inter-month and gained 2.3% over the last twelve months, both prints coming in below expectations. In the meantime, the lack of a clear direction and absence of relevant catalysts today keep motivating spot to extend the multi-day sideline theme, while cautiousness among traders is seen growing bigger in light of the upcoming ECB meeting (Thursday). EUR/USD keeps the familiar range so far on Wednesday, navigating the boundaries of the 1.1600 handle in the wake of the release of August’s US Producer Prices. At the moment, the pair is losing 0.12% at 1.1592 and a break below 1.1508 (low May 29) would target 1.1449 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 up move) and finally 1.1299 (2018 low Aug.15).

GBP/USD

Sterling fell on Wednesday after reports of a potential leadership challenge to Prime Minister Theresa May and as realism set in about how far there remains to go before Britain can agree a Brexit trade deal. The pound fell a quarter of a percent to as low as $1.2994 against the dollar after the BBC reported a group of about 50 lawmakers in May’s government had met to discuss how and when they could force her out of her job. These lawmakers have condemned May’s plans for Britain to remain in a free trade zone for goods with the EU after it leaves the bloc in March, 2019. The pound later recovered to trade flat at $1.3028, while against the euro the British currency was largely unmoved, at 89.010 pence per euro (EURGBP=D3). In choppy trading in recent days, sterling had hit five-week highs of $1.3087 on renewed hopes of a speedy Brexit deal with Brussels.

13orex

11Sep
Forex

Epic Research| Forex Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – U.S. Dollar Inches Down as Trade Tensions Weigh
Forex – GBP/USD leaps above 1.30 on Barnier comments
Forex – EUR/USD looks to 1.1600 post-Eurozone Sentix

EUR/USD

The bulls are in charge in the European session, propelling the EUR/USD pair to takeout the 20-DMA barrier located at 1.1573, as they await fresh impetus for further upside targets. The spot is trying hard to take on the recovery from fresh three-week lows of 1.1526 reached in early Europe, as the US dollar appears to have found some support across its main competitors, after having witnessed a sharp corrective drop from three-day tops at 95.56. Meanwhile, downbeat Eurozone Sentix investor confidence data could also add weight on the common currency. The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence arrived at 12.0 in September versus 14.3 expected. From a broader perspective, the major remains exposed to further downside risks, as the monetary policy divergence between both the continents is back in play after Friday’s solid US NFP data suggests a faster pace of Fed tightening in the coming months.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair gained more than 100 pips in a matter of minutes after the EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator, Michel Barnier, delivered optimistic comments surrounding the divorce talks with the UK. At the moment, the pair is trading at its highest level in ten days at 1.3035, adding nearly 1% on the day. Speaking at a conference in Bled, Slovenia, Barnier stated that they were close to reaching an agreement on the UK-EU security ties and added that it would be realistic to expect an orderly Brexit deal in 6-8 weeks. Regarding the Chequers plan, Barnier refuted the claims that it was rejected by the EU and said that it was useful. Earlier in the day, the data from the UK showed that manufacturing production contracted by 0.2% on a monthly basis in July while the industrial production only expanded by 0.1% in the same period and both readings fell short of the analysts’ estimates. On a positive note, the monthly real-GDP growth came in at 0.2% in July to beat the market consensus of 0.2%.

 

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6Aug
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Forex Market Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Strengthens as Trade Tensions Pressure Chinese Yuan

Forex – GBP/USD sticks to modest gains, above 1.30 handle post-NFP

Forex – EUR/USD around 1.1600 post-Payrolls

EUR/USD

After a brief test of levels above the 1.1600 handle on PBoC headlines, EUR/USD manages to keep the buying interest around the 1.1600/10 area in the wake of US Non-farm Payrolls. Spot keeps the familiar range post-PBoC spike after the US economy created 157K jobs during July, coming in below estimates at 193K and down from June’s 248K (revised from 213K). Further data showed the unemployment rate slipped to 3.9%, matching prior surveys. In addition, Average Hourly Earnings – a proxy for wage inflation – expanded at a monthly 0.3% and 2.7% over the last twelve months, in line with previous estimates Later in the session, the key ISM Non manufacturing during July is due along with Markit’s Services PMI for the same period. At the moment, the pair is up 0.06% at 1.1592 facing immediate contention at 1.1562 followed by 1.1527 and then 1.1508 . On the upside, a breakout of 1.1680 would aim for 1.1749 and finally 1.1792 (high Jul.9)

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair held on to its modest daily gains, above the key 1.30 psychological mark, albeit struggled to gain any follow-through traction post- US monthly jobs report. With investors looking past today’s disappointing UK services PMI, the pair enjoyed a brief rally and spiked to a session high level of 1.3043 on the back of a modest US Dollar retracement, triggered by the headlines that PBoC raises reserve requirement on FX forwards trading to 20%. The uptick remained supported after the headline NFP print fell short of consensus estimates and showed that the US economy added 157K new jobs during the month of July, lower than 190K expected and worse than previous month’s upwardly revised reading of 248K. Additional details showed that the unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.9%, on expected lines. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings growth, coming in at 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y, partly offset the negative headline print and helped limit any deeper losses for the greenback, eventually capped gains for the major.

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26Jul
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Forex Market Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Slips, Euro Flat Before Trump-Juncker Talks
Forex – EURUSD Trades Must Account for EU-US Trade Talks, Then ECB Decision
Forex – GBP/USD clings to gains near 1-week tops, above mid-1.3100s

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD struggles to set its next short-term direction as it fluctuates in a very narrow 35-pip on Wednesday. After advancing above the 1.17 mark in the early NA session, the pair came under a modest pressure and turned flat on the day near 1.1690. Earlier today, the data released by the European Central Bank showed that new loans issued to consumers and businesses in the private sector rose by 2.9% on a yearly basis in June to come in slightly below the market expectation of 3% but failed to receive a notable reaction from the markets. According to the monthly report released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, new home sales decreased from 666K in May to 631K in June to miss the experts’ estimate of 670K. This number represented a 5.3% fall from May to June. Despite the disappointing data, theUS Dollar Index started to pull away from the session low it set at 94.35 and was last seen down 0.15% on the day at 94.50.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair held on to its positive tone through the mid-European session, albeit has retreated few pips from fresh one week tops touched earlier today. The UK PM Theresa May’s announcement on Tuesday, saying that she will personally lead the Brexit negotiations with the European Union assisted the pair to build on its overnight positive momentum. The up-move was further supported by the latest UK CBI realized sales data that showed strong spending trend for the second straight month in July, albeit at a slower pace than in June. This coupled with the prevalent US Dollar selling bias, undermined by weaker US Treasury bond yields, provided an additional boost and lifted the pair to an intraday high level of 1.3170. With investors turning cautious ahead of a crucial trade meeting between the US President
Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, growing concerns over a no-deal/disorderly Brexit might now keep a lid on any strong follow through.

 

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23Jul
forex-Tradinghugyh

Epic Research Forex Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ
Forex – Dollar on Track for Weekly Drop as Trump Blasts Fed Policy
Forex – Flailing Euro Is Unlikely to Find Any Succor From ECB Meeting
Forex – GBP/USD spikes to fresh session tops, 1.31 mark back on sight

EUR/USD

The euro has been treading water. It is unlikely to find a rescuing hand from the European Central Bank, whose policy makers meet next week. While analysts expect the shared currency to strengthen as the year progresses, conviction in that view is shaky, with strategists having pared their calls recently. The euro was knocked down after the ECB’s mid-June policy review, when President Mario Draghi dashed expectations for tightening in early 2019. Since then, trade tensions have heightened and core inflation in the euro area has been revised downward, which gives the ECB little incentive to change tack any time soon. The policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the ECB is another factor that is curbing enthusiasm on the euro. Shorter-term bond yields, which are usually more sensitive to changing views on monetary policy, are in favor of the dollar: the two-year yield differential between U.S. Treasuries and German bunds widened this week to more than 300 basis points, the most in data going back to 1990.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair reversed a dip to sub-1.3000 level and spiked to fresh session tops around the 1.3080-85 region in the last hour. The pair built on its overnight rebound from 10-month lows and caught some bids since the early European session, snapping three consecutive days of losing streak. A follow-through US Dollar retracement on Friday was seen as one of the key factors that helped the pair to recover all of its
previous session’s losses. The latest leg of a spike over the past hour or so could be attributed to the US President Donald Trump’s comments, via Twitter, expressing displeasure over the Fed’s monetary policy tightening. The greenback was also being weighed down by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s dovish comments, saying that yield curve inversion is a bearish signal on the economy and the Fed should hold
off on hiking further.

 

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19Jul
Forex_market

Forex Market Report| Epic Research

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Hits Day’s Highs on Powell Testimony
Forex – EUR/USD tumbles to sub-1.1700 area ahead of Powell
Forex – GBP/USD tumbles to lows, around mid-1.3100s on Brexit concerns

EUR/USD
After clinching fresh tops in the 1.1740/50 band in early trade, EUR/USD met a wave of selling orders and has now retreated to the 1.1700/1.1690 band. The pair gave away initial gains beyond 1.1700 the figure and is now remain under pressure in light of the upcoming semi-annual testimony by Fed’s J.Powell before the Senate Banking Committee. USD gathered extra traction after US June’s Industrial and Manufacturing Production expanded beyond consensus at a monthly 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. On the not-so-bright-side, Capacity Utilization Rate came in at 78.0%. missing estimates albeit higher than May’s 77.7%. Looking ahead, investors expect Powell to deliver a message in line with the statement published at the June meeting, although attention has also shifted to the yield curve and the continuation of the gradual path when comes to raising rates. At the moment, the pair is losing 0.12% at 1.1696 facing the next support at 1.1663 (21-day sma) seconded by 1.1615 (low Jul.13) and finally 1.1527 (low Jun.29).

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair extended its sharp intraday slide and tumbled around 120-pips from the post-UK jobs data swing high level of 1.3269. The latest UK political headlines, wherein Labour party members were said to support the amendment offered by rebel Tory MPs to keep Britain in the customs union after Brexit raised concerns about the UK PM Theresa May’s future and prompted some aggressive selling
around the British Pound. This coupled with resurgent US Dollar demand, amid expectations about an upbeat economic outlook from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual congressional testimony, added to the downward pressure surrounding the major. The ongoing sharp decline could also be attributed to some cross-driven weakness, steaming out of a sudden spike witnessed around the EUR/GBPcross.

 

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17Jul
Forex-trading-in-Kenya

Forex Market Update| Epic Research

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Slips Lower, Euro Pushes Up to Day’s Highs
Forex – EUR/USD unchanged above 1.1700 post-US Retail Sales
Forex – GBP futures: upside corrective near term

EUR/USD

EUR/USD keeps the positive stance intact at the beginning of the week, although it has now receded from tops beyond 1.1720 in the wake of US data releases. The pair trades in the area of 3-day peaks after US headline Retail Sales expanded at a monthly 0.4% during June and Core Sales rose 0.5% inter-month, both prints coming in in line with initial estimates. In addition, the NY Empire State manufacturing index
came in above expectations at 22.60 for the current month, a tad lower than June’s 25.00 reading. Looking ahead, spot is poised to remain under scrutiny in light of headlines from the Trump-Putin meeting and the upcoming testimonies by Fed’s J.Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.21% at 1.1714 and a break above 1.1726 (high Jul.16) would target 1.1735 (55-day sma) en-route to 1.1792 (high Jul.9). On the other hand, the immediate support aligns at 1.1657 (21-day sma) seconded by 1.1615 (low Jul.13) and finally 1.1527 (low Jun.29).

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has lifted to kick off the week’s trading, testing into the 1.4000 handle in the pre-London markets. The Sterling is capitalizing on Dollar buying taking a break in the early week, with Brexit concerns currently forgotten as an increasingly hawkish outlook from the Bank of England (BOE) takes center stage for the pair. BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden turned surprisingly hawkish over the weekend, after voting against a rate increase last November. Deputy Governor Ramsden went on record, stating he expects a rate increase “somewhat sooner rather than somewhat later”, sparking some confidence in the Sterling. Brexit continues to weigh on the Sterling in the underlying, with hardline Brexiteers within Prime Minister May’s ruling Conservative party continuing to rage against PM May’s ‘soft Brexit’ approach to negotiations with the EU.

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11Jul
438174_4c36_7

Forex Market Update| Epic Research

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ
Forex – Dollar Extends Early Gains, Euro Slips
Forex – Sterling Edges Higher, UK GDP Data Eyed
Forex – EUR/USD bounces off lows, looking to stay above 1.1700

EUR/USD

 

The dollar extended early gains against a currency basket on Tuesday, sending the euro lower, while mixed GDP data and political instability weighed on the pound. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.25% to 94.04 by 09:28 AM ET (13:28 GMT). The euro was weaker against the firmer USD, with EUR/USD down 0.27% to 1.1719 after falling as low as 1.1691 earlier. In the euro zone, data on Tuesday showed that German investor confidence fell to the lowest level in six years in July as fears over an escalation in trade tensions with the U.S. dampened the economic outlook. The ZEW index of German investor sentiment dropped to -24.7 this month from -16.1 in June, the weakest reading since August 2012. The dollar was also higher against the yen, with USD/JPY climbing 0.33% to 111.19, the most since May 21. Demand for the dollar continued to be underpinned by expectations for a faster pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year.

GBP/USD
The pound edged higher on Tuesday despite fresh uncertainty over Brexit following the resignations of David Davis and Boris Johnson, as investors awaited growth data that could keep the Bank of England on track for an August rate hike. GBP/USD was trading at 1.3274 by 03:53 AM ET (07:53 AM GMT), having touched an overnight low of 1.3224. Sterling remained on the back foot after Boris Johnson resigned as British foreign secretary on Monday, becoming the third minister to quit the government in twenty-four hours, rather than back Prime Minister Theresa May’s plans for a soft Brexit. Johnson’s resignation increased the chance that May could face a vote of no confidence, which could throw the future of her government into doubt. But the pound found support amid reports that May could avoid a leadership challenge, keeping alive hopes that a softer Brexit may be on the cards moving forward. Sterling was also higher against the euro, with EUR/GBP losing 0.21% to trade at 0.8843.

 

11-7

22Jun
Forex คืออะไร

Epic Research : Forex Insight

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Dips on Soft U.S. Factory Data, BoE Boosts Pound
Forex – GBP/USD extends gains, rises to 1.3270
Forex – EUR/USD bulls take a breather above 1.16

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair benefited from the broad-based selling pressure witness on the USD in the early NA session and erased its daily losses to turn positive above the 1.16 mark. After advancing to a fresh session high at 1.1633, the pair lost its momentum and was last seen trading at 1.1603, where it was up 0.25% on the day. The sudden risk-aversion felt in the last cıouple of hours dragged the 10-year US T-bond yields below the 2.9% mark and weighed on the greenback. The US Dollar Index, which rallied to a fresh 11-month high above 95 earlier today, dropped all the way down to 94.33 before starting to consolidate its losses. At the moment, the index is down 0.23% on the day at 94.55. Meanwhile, today’s data from the United States disappointed with the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index missing the market expectation of 29 with 19.9 in June. Furthermore, the housing price index came in at 0.1% in April to fall short of experts’ estimate of 0.3%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair rose more than 150 pips from the daily low. Earlier today bottomed at 1.3100, the lowest since November. After the BoE decision climbed above 1.3200 and then, a weak US dollar boosted the pair further to the upside. Recently it printed a fresh daily high at 1.3270, the highest level since Tuesday. It was hovering around 1.3250/60, consolidating important daily gains. The pound is among the top performers on Thursday on the back of BoE policy expectations that changed after the 7-2 vote at the MPC and the comments regarding when to consider changes to the purchase program. “The GBP appreciated and Gilt yields rose across the curve on the hawkish signals from the Bank of England. The market is now pricing in above 65% probability of a rate hike in August (17bp priced) compared with around 45% probability prior to the announcement, while a November hike is now almost fully priced in.

 

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