Forex Signals

3Oct
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Forex Market Report| Epic Research

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Lira Gains as Signs of Economic Cooling Boost Investor Sentiment
Forex – Sterling Jumps on News of Irish Border Deal
Forex – Euroclear to offer dollar settlement in central bank money for the first time

EUR/USD

Post-trade services provider Euroclear said on Monday its UK and Ireland arm had linked to the U.S. Federal Reserve settlement service, enabling it to settle dollar transactions via a central bank payment model for the first time. The group said it was the first non-U.S. financial services infrastructure to connect to the Fed’s National Settlement Service. While Euroclear UK and Ireland (EUI) already offers a settlement in “central bank money” for sterling and euro transactions, hooking up with the Fed allows it to expand the service to dollars. The central bank or sovereign money refers to money issued by a central bank. EUI’s existing dollar settlement was based on commercial bank money, which is generated when banks issue loans or conduct transactions in excess of their actual currency holdings. Euroclear said customers would now get dollar cash proceeds from a sale of securities from the moment each transaction settled.

GBP/USD

Sterling surged on Monday amid news that the UK plans to compromise on the Irish border issue to move forward with a Brexit deal. GBP/USD jumped 0.28% to 1.3066 as of 9:05 AM ET (13:05 GMT), not far from an earlier high of 1.3078. UK Prime Minister Theresa May plans to make a new Brexit deal with the European Union, Bloomberg reported. A senior British government official told Bloomberg that the country sees a way to reach an agreement on the border issue. The compromise would only apply as a last resort if a deal is not reached and would be conditional on the UK having full access to the EU customs union. The EU has already proposed allowing Northern Ireland to trade with Ireland without full checks, which May has rejected on the grounds that it would break up the UK. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, inched down 0.05% to 94.75 as trade tensions eased and investors moved to riskier assets.

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1Oct
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Epic Research| Forex Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Inches Up After Fed; Aussie Dollar Also Gains
Forex – EUR/USD stance moves to neutral – Scotiabank
Forex – GBP/USD keeps the red near session lows, around 1.3120 ahead of Carney

EUR/USD

“Italian budget negotiations are in focus as market participants assess the risk of a delay to the 2019 budget plan, given conflicting reports on planned deficit targets. 10Y BTP yields are up 5bpts on the day.ECB rate expectations remain steady and German-U.S. yield spreads have narrowed from their extended levels. Measures of implied volatility are rising and lifting the premium for protection against EUR weakness”. “Bullish momentum indicators are fading to neutral and the DMI’s are converging. EUR appears to have found near-term support in the 1.1680-1.1700 area and we would anticipate additional support at 1.1650. We continue to highlight the importance of the 1.1780 level representing the first major retracement (38.2%) of the 2018 decline”.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair held on to its weaker tone through the early North-American session and is now headed towards the lower end of its daily trading range. Against the backdrop of a hawkish assessment of the latest FOMC statement, the US Dollar positive momentum picked up pace after the final US Q2 GDP growth figures confirmed the preliminary estimate of 4.2% annualized pace, the strongest in 4 years. This coupled with a stronger than expected jump in durable goods orders offset a slight disappointment from core durable goods orders, initial weekly jobless claims and goods trade balance data, coming in to show an unexpected rise in deficit to $75.83 billion in August. The USD positive momentum seemed rather unaffected by the prevalent weaker tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields, with increasing odds for a no-deal Brexit further collaborating towards keeping the GBP bulls on the defensive.

 

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25Sep
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Epic Research| Forex Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Higher as Sterling Slumps on Brexit Woes
Forex – Sterling Hits Intraday Lows as May Says UK-EU at Impasse
Forex – EUR/USD: Fed should help for another visit to 1.15 – Danske Bank

EUR/USD

The greenback quickly drops and retests the 93.80 area. ECB’s Draghi sees underlying inflation picking up vigorously. EUR/USD leapt to fresh daily highs in the 1.1800/10 band in response to hawkish comments from President Mario Draghi. After bottoming out in the proximity of 1.1720 earlier in the session, spot gathered quick upside traction and moved beyond the 1.1800 milestones following comments by President Draghi. In fact, at his speech before the European Parliament, Draghi noted the tight conditions in the labour market, upside pressure on wages while he sees a vigorous pick up in underlying inflation. Draghi’s comments appear to have reinforced the idea that the ECB could start its tightening cycle at some point in H2 2019, with likely two rate hikes in October and December. At the moment, the pair is up 0.49% at 1.1806 and a breakout of 1.1815 (high Sep.24) would target 1.1853 (monthly high Jun.14) en route to 1.1947 (200-day SMA).

GBP/USD

The U.S. dollar continued to fall against other currencies on Monday, while the pound gained ground as investors awaited an interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.21% to 93.59 as of 10:21 AM ET (14:21 GMT). The Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, with traders expecting a rate hike for the third time this year. The market has already priced in a 100% chance of a 25-basis point increase. Chances of an increase in December were at 86.1%. Meanwhile, trade war concerns escalated after U.S. duties on $200 billion of Chinese goods and Chinese tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. products went into effect. China cancelled mid-level trade talks with the U.S. as well as a proposed visit to Washington by Vice Premier Liu He, which had been scheduled for this week, saying the U.S. was bullying them.

 

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21Sep
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Epic Research| Forex Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Traders See the Fed’s Next Rate Hike as a Big Sell Signal
Forex – GBP/USD strong bullish run pauses just ahead of 1.3300 handle
Forex – EUR/USD rebounds are likely to be short-term and capped – Westpac

EUR/USD

“Their first budget was expected to test EU budget responsibility amidst fears of a fiscal blowout due to the opposing stances of the rightwing League and spending friendly 5 Star. Though still a risk, their budget appears to be falling well inside EU’s 3% deficit to GDP guidance and so a potential negative for EUR is turning into a supportive factor.” “Last week Draghi downplayed downside risks for a balanced and neutral outlook while maintaining their forward guidance. In addition to flash and Germany’s IFO survey, the ECB will be closely watching for any upside pressures within coming inflation data to offset external downside risks and persisting moderation in hard activity data.” “EUR/USD rebounds on the back of Italy’s reduced budget risk and consolidation in USD are likely to be short-term and capped within the current 1.12-1.19 range.”

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair stalled its strong intraday bullish momentum just ahead of the 1.3300 handle and quickly retreated around 20-pips in the last hour. A combination of supporting factors – collapsing US Dollar, upbeat UK retail sales data and Brexit optimism, assisted the pair to catch some strong bids and confirm a fresh bullish break through 100-day SMA. With today’s strong up-move, the pair had rallied over 200- pips from overnight swing low level of 1.3096, touched in the reaction of a report that the UK PM May will reject the EU’s new proposal on the Irish border. Bulls, however, took some breather following the release of better-than-expected US economic data – Philly Fed manufacturing index and initial weekly jobless claims. This coupled with resurgent US Treasury bond yieldshelped ease the US Dollar bearish pressure, at least of the time being, and halted the pair’s relentless rally to the highest level since July 10.

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13Sep
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Epic Research| Forex Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – U.S. Dollar Falls on Disappointing PPI Data
Forex – Sterling down on report of potential leadership challenge to UK’s May
Forex – EUR/USD regains traction and tests 1.1600 post-US PPI

EUR/USD

Spot bounced to the boundaries of the critical 1.1600 handle after US headline Producer Prices surprised markets to the downside in August, contracting for the first time after 18 months at a monthly 0.1% and expanding 2.8% on a yearly basis. In addition, Core Producer Prices dropped 0.1% inter-month and gained 2.3% over the last twelve months, both prints coming in below expectations. In the meantime, the lack of a clear direction and absence of relevant catalysts today keep motivating spot to extend the multi-day sideline theme, while cautiousness among traders is seen growing bigger in light of the upcoming ECB meeting (Thursday). EUR/USD keeps the familiar range so far on Wednesday, navigating the boundaries of the 1.1600 handle in the wake of the release of August’s US Producer Prices. At the moment, the pair is losing 0.12% at 1.1592 and a break below 1.1508 (low May 29) would target 1.1449 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 up move) and finally 1.1299 (2018 low Aug.15).

GBP/USD

Sterling fell on Wednesday after reports of a potential leadership challenge to Prime Minister Theresa May and as realism set in about how far there remains to go before Britain can agree a Brexit trade deal. The pound fell a quarter of a percent to as low as $1.2994 against the dollar after the BBC reported a group of about 50 lawmakers in May’s government had met to discuss how and when they could force her out of her job. These lawmakers have condemned May’s plans for Britain to remain in a free trade zone for goods with the EU after it leaves the bloc in March, 2019. The pound later recovered to trade flat at $1.3028, while against the euro the British currency was largely unmoved, at 89.010 pence per euro (EURGBP=D3). In choppy trading in recent days, sterling had hit five-week highs of $1.3087 on renewed hopes of a speedy Brexit deal with Brussels.

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11Sep
Forex

Epic Research| Forex Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – U.S. Dollar Inches Down as Trade Tensions Weigh
Forex – GBP/USD leaps above 1.30 on Barnier comments
Forex – EUR/USD looks to 1.1600 post-Eurozone Sentix

EUR/USD

The bulls are in charge in the European session, propelling the EUR/USD pair to takeout the 20-DMA barrier located at 1.1573, as they await fresh impetus for further upside targets. The spot is trying hard to take on the recovery from fresh three-week lows of 1.1526 reached in early Europe, as the US dollar appears to have found some support across its main competitors, after having witnessed a sharp corrective drop from three-day tops at 95.56. Meanwhile, downbeat Eurozone Sentix investor confidence data could also add weight on the common currency. The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence arrived at 12.0 in September versus 14.3 expected. From a broader perspective, the major remains exposed to further downside risks, as the monetary policy divergence between both the continents is back in play after Friday’s solid US NFP data suggests a faster pace of Fed tightening in the coming months.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair gained more than 100 pips in a matter of minutes after the EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator, Michel Barnier, delivered optimistic comments surrounding the divorce talks with the UK. At the moment, the pair is trading at its highest level in ten days at 1.3035, adding nearly 1% on the day. Speaking at a conference in Bled, Slovenia, Barnier stated that they were close to reaching an agreement on the UK-EU security ties and added that it would be realistic to expect an orderly Brexit deal in 6-8 weeks. Regarding the Chequers plan, Barnier refuted the claims that it was rejected by the EU and said that it was useful. Earlier in the day, the data from the UK showed that manufacturing production contracted by 0.2% on a monthly basis in July while the industrial production only expanded by 0.1% in the same period and both readings fell short of the analysts’ estimates. On a positive note, the monthly real-GDP growth came in at 0.2% in July to beat the market consensus of 0.2%.

 

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6Aug
forex-Tradinghugyh

Forex Market Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Strengthens as Trade Tensions Pressure Chinese Yuan

Forex – GBP/USD sticks to modest gains, above 1.30 handle post-NFP

Forex – EUR/USD around 1.1600 post-Payrolls

EUR/USD

After a brief test of levels above the 1.1600 handle on PBoC headlines, EUR/USD manages to keep the buying interest around the 1.1600/10 area in the wake of US Non-farm Payrolls. Spot keeps the familiar range post-PBoC spike after the US economy created 157K jobs during July, coming in below estimates at 193K and down from June’s 248K (revised from 213K). Further data showed the unemployment rate slipped to 3.9%, matching prior surveys. In addition, Average Hourly Earnings – a proxy for wage inflation – expanded at a monthly 0.3% and 2.7% over the last twelve months, in line with previous estimates Later in the session, the key ISM Non manufacturing during July is due along with Markit’s Services PMI for the same period. At the moment, the pair is up 0.06% at 1.1592 facing immediate contention at 1.1562 followed by 1.1527 and then 1.1508 . On the upside, a breakout of 1.1680 would aim for 1.1749 and finally 1.1792 (high Jul.9)

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair held on to its modest daily gains, above the key 1.30 psychological mark, albeit struggled to gain any follow-through traction post- US monthly jobs report. With investors looking past today’s disappointing UK services PMI, the pair enjoyed a brief rally and spiked to a session high level of 1.3043 on the back of a modest US Dollar retracement, triggered by the headlines that PBoC raises reserve requirement on FX forwards trading to 20%. The uptick remained supported after the headline NFP print fell short of consensus estimates and showed that the US economy added 157K new jobs during the month of July, lower than 190K expected and worse than previous month’s upwardly revised reading of 248K. Additional details showed that the unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.9%, on expected lines. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings growth, coming in at 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y, partly offset the negative headline print and helped limit any deeper losses for the greenback, eventually capped gains for the major.

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26Jul
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Forex Market Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Slips, Euro Flat Before Trump-Juncker Talks
Forex – EURUSD Trades Must Account for EU-US Trade Talks, Then ECB Decision
Forex – GBP/USD clings to gains near 1-week tops, above mid-1.3100s

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD struggles to set its next short-term direction as it fluctuates in a very narrow 35-pip on Wednesday. After advancing above the 1.17 mark in the early NA session, the pair came under a modest pressure and turned flat on the day near 1.1690. Earlier today, the data released by the European Central Bank showed that new loans issued to consumers and businesses in the private sector rose by 2.9% on a yearly basis in June to come in slightly below the market expectation of 3% but failed to receive a notable reaction from the markets. According to the monthly report released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, new home sales decreased from 666K in May to 631K in June to miss the experts’ estimate of 670K. This number represented a 5.3% fall from May to June. Despite the disappointing data, theUS Dollar Index started to pull away from the session low it set at 94.35 and was last seen down 0.15% on the day at 94.50.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair held on to its positive tone through the mid-European session, albeit has retreated few pips from fresh one week tops touched earlier today. The UK PM Theresa May’s announcement on Tuesday, saying that she will personally lead the Brexit negotiations with the European Union assisted the pair to build on its overnight positive momentum. The up-move was further supported by the latest UK CBI realized sales data that showed strong spending trend for the second straight month in July, albeit at a slower pace than in June. This coupled with the prevalent US Dollar selling bias, undermined by weaker US Treasury bond yields, provided an additional boost and lifted the pair to an intraday high level of 1.3170. With investors turning cautious ahead of a crucial trade meeting between the US President
Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, growing concerns over a no-deal/disorderly Brexit might now keep a lid on any strong follow through.

 

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23Jul
forex-Tradinghugyh

Epic Research Forex Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ
Forex – Dollar on Track for Weekly Drop as Trump Blasts Fed Policy
Forex – Flailing Euro Is Unlikely to Find Any Succor From ECB Meeting
Forex – GBP/USD spikes to fresh session tops, 1.31 mark back on sight

EUR/USD

The euro has been treading water. It is unlikely to find a rescuing hand from the European Central Bank, whose policy makers meet next week. While analysts expect the shared currency to strengthen as the year progresses, conviction in that view is shaky, with strategists having pared their calls recently. The euro was knocked down after the ECB’s mid-June policy review, when President Mario Draghi dashed expectations for tightening in early 2019. Since then, trade tensions have heightened and core inflation in the euro area has been revised downward, which gives the ECB little incentive to change tack any time soon. The policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the ECB is another factor that is curbing enthusiasm on the euro. Shorter-term bond yields, which are usually more sensitive to changing views on monetary policy, are in favor of the dollar: the two-year yield differential between U.S. Treasuries and German bunds widened this week to more than 300 basis points, the most in data going back to 1990.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair reversed a dip to sub-1.3000 level and spiked to fresh session tops around the 1.3080-85 region in the last hour. The pair built on its overnight rebound from 10-month lows and caught some bids since the early European session, snapping three consecutive days of losing streak. A follow-through US Dollar retracement on Friday was seen as one of the key factors that helped the pair to recover all of its
previous session’s losses. The latest leg of a spike over the past hour or so could be attributed to the US President Donald Trump’s comments, via Twitter, expressing displeasure over the Fed’s monetary policy tightening. The greenback was also being weighed down by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s dovish comments, saying that yield curve inversion is a bearish signal on the economy and the Fed should hold
off on hiking further.

 

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19Jul
Forex_market

Forex Market Report| Epic Research

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Hits Day’s Highs on Powell Testimony
Forex – EUR/USD tumbles to sub-1.1700 area ahead of Powell
Forex – GBP/USD tumbles to lows, around mid-1.3100s on Brexit concerns

EUR/USD
After clinching fresh tops in the 1.1740/50 band in early trade, EUR/USD met a wave of selling orders and has now retreated to the 1.1700/1.1690 band. The pair gave away initial gains beyond 1.1700 the figure and is now remain under pressure in light of the upcoming semi-annual testimony by Fed’s J.Powell before the Senate Banking Committee. USD gathered extra traction after US June’s Industrial and Manufacturing Production expanded beyond consensus at a monthly 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. On the not-so-bright-side, Capacity Utilization Rate came in at 78.0%. missing estimates albeit higher than May’s 77.7%. Looking ahead, investors expect Powell to deliver a message in line with the statement published at the June meeting, although attention has also shifted to the yield curve and the continuation of the gradual path when comes to raising rates. At the moment, the pair is losing 0.12% at 1.1696 facing the next support at 1.1663 (21-day sma) seconded by 1.1615 (low Jul.13) and finally 1.1527 (low Jun.29).

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair extended its sharp intraday slide and tumbled around 120-pips from the post-UK jobs data swing high level of 1.3269. The latest UK political headlines, wherein Labour party members were said to support the amendment offered by rebel Tory MPs to keep Britain in the customs union after Brexit raised concerns about the UK PM Theresa May’s future and prompted some aggressive selling
around the British Pound. This coupled with resurgent US Dollar demand, amid expectations about an upbeat economic outlook from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual congressional testimony, added to the downward pressure surrounding the major. The ongoing sharp decline could also be attributed to some cross-driven weakness, steaming out of a sudden spike witnessed around the EUR/GBPcross.

 

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