Euro Forecast


Crucial Forecast for EUR/USD: Neutral

- The Euro devalued against the majority of the other seven noteworthy monetary forms, with EUR/CHF (- 1.64%) and EUR/USD (- 1.45%) driving the decrease.

- The preparatory May Eurozone PMI readings aren’t set to enhance, giving little explanation behind the Euro’s downtrend to end.

- The IG Client Sentiment Index is by and by proposing to offer EUR/USD after late moves in theoretical situating.

The Euro was the most exceedingly bad performing real cash a week ago, with EUR/CHF (- 1.64%) and EUR/USD (- 1.45%) driving the decrease. A modification lower to the last April Eurozone CPI report combined with signs that the United States would stay away from noteworthy exchange question with China sapped interest for the low yielding Euro.

Simultaneously, the essential background for the Euro remains rather feeble. The Citi Economic Surprise Index, a check of financial information force, shut a week ago at – 91.7, still somewhere down in a negative area (albeit no longer at its weakest perusing since September 2011). This is a slight change from seven days back (- 97.9) yet not over the previous month (- 90.0).

Swelling desires aren’t showing improvement over information force, both of which have been consistently disintegrating lately. The 5-year, 5-year expansion swap advances completed Friday at 1.702%, down from 1.714% seven days sooner. Swelling desires topped for this present year on January 22, when the 5-year, 5-year rate was 1.774%.

No doubt this would be tantamount to a period as ever for swelling desires to turn higher (in the event that they mean to in the close term), given that Brent raw petroleum costs having been mobilizing and Euro quality isn’t as articulated as it once might have been (Euro exchange weighted file is just up +4.77% from a year sooner; a month prior, it was nearer to +9%).

The week ahead guarantees couple of chances for the bearish account that has concealed the Euro in the course of recent weeks to vanish. Remotely, any determination to the implied China US exchange war would apparently be US Dollar positive, reflecting the underlying negative response to when the exchange collaboration ended up stressed.

Inside, the main noteworthy information due out are the underlying May PMI readings. The blend of individual nation discharges toward the beginning of the week will come full circle in stale readings in the combined Eurozone PMIs due out on Wednesday (no change or decreases are expected). Somewhere else, political hazard is on the ascent now that Italy has another administration: Italian security yields and credit default swap spreads have been ascending since the news broke toward the beginning of May.

In conclusion, there is as yet a striking net-long Euro position in the fates showcase. Examiners still held +115.1K contracts during that time finished May 15, a – 24% decay from the untouched high set amid the week finished April 17 (+151.5K contracts). While this is turning into a less troublesome a circumstance for the Euro, the easiest course of action for the Euro stays towards shortcoming if situating trimming proceeds.



The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index Rose 0.6 %

The FBM KLCI index gained 0.06 points or 0.00% on Friday. The Finance Index increased 0.05% to 18328.29 points, the Properties Index up 1.00% to 1086.65 points and the Plantation Index down 0.17% to 7922.24 points. The market traded within a range of 8.62 points between an intra-day high of 1862.19 and a low of 1853.57 during the session. Actively traded stocks include MYEG, SAPNRG, NEXGRAM, WCT, NETX, HUBLINE, MRCB, HIS-C3B, EDEN and EDUSPEC. Trading volume decreased to 2915.52 mil shares worth RM3162.50 mil as compared to Thursday’s 3329.08 mil shares worth RM3783.83 mil. Leading Movers were NESTLE (+300 sen to RM145.00), TM (+10 sen to RM4.88), MAXIS (+11 sen to RM5.78), PPB (+18 sen to RM19.98) and AMMB (+3 sen to RM3.53). Lagging Movers were PMETAL (-23 sen to RM4.73), ASTRO (-7 sen to RM1.55), YTL (-2 sen to RM0.99), GENTING (-15 sen to RM8.67) and KLCC (-13 sen to RM7.80). Market breadth was negative with 380 gainers as compared to 607 losers. The KLCI closed flat with 0.06 points higher at 1854.50 points amid lack of local catalyst despite overnight retreat in Wall Street.

21 may report


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                                                                                                Comex Gold Signal




  • Gold prices continued near December-lows on Thursday, as a stronger U.S. dollar and bond yields kept the price of bullion lower. Comex gold futures for June delivery were down 0.17% to $1,289.30 a troy ounce as of 10:25 AM ET (14:25 GMT). The price of bouillon was driven lower by the rise in the greenback and increase in bond yields. . The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.10% to 93.36. Gold is denominated in the U.S. currency and becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies when the dollar rises.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report thatnatural gas storage in the U.S. increased by 106 billion cubic feet in the week ended May 11, compared to forecasts for a build of 105 billion. Thursday’s data compared with a gain of 89 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the preceding week and represented a decline of 821 billion from a year earlier and was also 501 bcf below the five-year average.
  • Crude prices moved higher in midmorning trade Thursday as increased tensions over Iranian oil exports and the economic situation in Venezuela provided a backstop for the bulls. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 45 cents, or about 0.6%, to $71.94 a barrel by 10:19AM ET (14:19GMT). Meanwhile, Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the U.S., traded up 66 cents, or roughly 0.8%, to $79.94 a barrel.


  • Mexico’s Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said on Thursday that there is no date set for the next North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) ministerial meeting, but added that his technical negotiating team was in Washington. Guajardo said that he could not rule out that talks with the United States and Canada to rework the trade accord continue after Mexico’s July 1 presidential election.
  • The European Union is ready to negotiate opening its markets wider to U.S. imports including cars, in a bid to avert a potential trade war with Washington, EU leaders said on Thursday. U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed import duties of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminium on grounds of national security but has granted EU producers an exemption until June 1 pending the outcome of talks.
  • Trade tensions may be starting to hold back global merchandise trade, the World Trade Organization said on Friday, as it published an outlook indicator showing growth was above trend this quarter but slowing down. The World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI), a composite published since the third quarter of 2016, showed a reading of 101.8 compared to 102.3 in February.



Bursa Malaysia Moved Up Slightly

At 5pm, the KLCI was down 3.82 points or 0.21% to 1,854.44 in late selling. Turnover was 3.33 billion shares valued at RM3.78bil. The broader market weakened as decliners led advancers 570 to 438 and 333 counters unchanged. The new government’s move to abolish the Goods and Services Tax by reducing it to zero had caused concern among credit agencies on how the government could narrow the fiscal deficit.

Bursa Malaysia moved up slightly in morning trade as the central bank announced the economy had expanded at a slower pace of 5.4% in the first quarter of this year. The FBM KLCI put on 4.91 points to 1,863.17. Turnover was 1.63 billion shares with a value of RM1.52bil. There were 412 advancers compared to 406 decliners and 349 counters unchanged. The 30-stock index was lifted by Petronas counters with Petronas Chemicals adding nine sen to RM8.71 and Petronas Gas rising 42 sen to RM17.92.


17 may report

Consumer giant Nestle led consumer stocks higher with an RM1.40 gain to RM142.90 following news that the government had zero-rated the Goods and Services Tax. Genting counters also saw a lift with Genting advancing 12 sen to RM8.81 and Genting Malaysia putting on 26 sen to RM5.24. Banks took a step back as Public Bank slipped two sen to RM24.48, CIMB dropped three sen to RM6.83, RHB dipped one sen to RM5.44 and Ambank slid one sen to RM3.57. Maybank remained unchanged at RM10.86. At 3.30pm, MyEG tumbled 37.5 sen to 89.5 sen with 365.24 million shares done. It hit limit down when it fell to a low of 89 sen. It is connected with the previous ruling party.  George Kent was down 46 sen to RM1.48 with 86.92 million shares done. It fell to a low of RM1.47. The FBM KLCI rose 4.8 points or 0.26% to 1,863.06. Turnover was 2.30 billion shares valued at RM2.34bil. There were 400 gainers, 529 losers and 336 counters unchanged.






                                                                                                  Comex Gold Signal





  • Gold prices were little changed on Monday as the dollar opened the week slipping against the other major currencies amid sagging U.S. 10-year Treasury yields. Gold futures for June delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 0.3, or 0.02%, to $1,320.2 a troy ounce by 1:02AM ET (05:02 GMT). Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies last stood at 92.28, down 0.17%. The greenback reached this year’s new high last Wednesday at 93.22, then lost its rally to drop to the 92 level on Monday.
  • As 9 pm approaches every weekday night in China, a small army of individual investors from around the country log onto trading apps on their mobile phones and laptops. Wall Street may be about to open but these night owls are interested in trading something much closer to home – the new Shanghai crude oil futures contracts <0#ISC:> that were launched in late March.
  • Oil prices shook off earlier weakness to trade higher on Monday, after OPEC said a global glut has been virtually eliminated thanks in part to ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts and fast-rising global demand. OPEC said in its monthly report published earlier that oil inventories in developed nations in March fell to 9 million barrels above the five-year average. That’s down from 340 million barrels above the average in January 2017.


  • Britain’s foreign minister Boris Johnson said on Monday he will discuss ways to protect companies doing business with Iran at a meeting with counterparts from France and Germany on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal. “What we are going to do tomorrow in Brussels is we are going to have a conversation about what we can do to help UK firms, European firms have some confidence that they can still do business,” Johnson said.
  • Top banks in London have begun lobbying to improve the European Union’s existing system of market access after the bloc’s officials dismissed British calls for a bespoke Brexit deal. Despite the scepticism in Brussels, the British government and financial lobbies TheCityUK, City of London financial district and UK Finance banking lobby, are unified in backing a “mutual recognition” blueprint for EU market access after Britain’s departure from the bloc next March.
  • European Central Bank policy maker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the institution’s first interest-rate increase could come “at least some quarters, but not years” after policy makers end their bond-buying program. In an interview in Paris, the French central banker played down concerns about the euro area’s first-quarter economic slowdown and signaled that the ECB is still likely to halt quantitative easing this year. He said inflation will resume its acceleration in coming months, with underlying price pressures set to strengthen as the bloc’s temporary weakness passes.



Short-Selling of Excel Force EG Services, George Kent and Gabungan AQRS has been suspended

The intra-day short-selling (IDSS) of Excel Force EG Services, George Kent and Gabungan AQRS has been suspended on Tuesday.  Bursa Securities announced that proprietary day trading (PDT) of the four counters has also been suspended. It said the suspension took effect at 8.30am as the last done price of the approved securities dropped more than 15 sen / 15 % from the reference price. “The PDT and IDSS activities will only be enabled the following trading day, that is Wednesday, at 08.30am,” it said.

Several politically-linked stocks on Bursa Malaysia went on a wild ride yesterday, driven by the market volatility in the first day of trading post-14th general election (GE14). Three counters linked to the new Pakatan government leaders hit limit-up and were among the most actively traded stocks.Another penny stock Thriven Global Bhd  jumped by 30 sen or 120% to 55 sen. Thriven, which is linked to Datuk Fakhri Yassin Mahiaddin, who is the son of Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, is involved in property development with projects across Peninsular Malaysia.

The mid-cap player is currently involved in the Mass Rapid Transit 2 project and is the developer of the East Klang Valley Expressway.

bizdx_arz_1505_stock pricesPDF




EUR/USD : Forex Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Technical Strategy: NET SHORT AT 1.2276

  • Euro down pattern might be prepared to continue after brief rise
  • Falling star light affirmed with counter-incline line break
  • Adding to earlier EUR/USD short, searching for finish

The Euro might be prepared to continue the down move began in mid-April against the US Dollar after brief remedial ricochet from help over the 1.18 figure. Restored offering would check advance in what appears to be the following leg of the decade-long Euro down pattern, a move resuscitated with a month ago’s nearby.

The day by day graph demonstrates an obvious Shooting Star candle on a retest of help handed protection over the 1.1930-56 zone. That is characteristic of hesitation after a rise and may stamp the principal indication of garnish, in spite of the fact that a significant inversion flag isn’t promptly inferred by this setup alone.


That originates from the four-hour outline, where the break of counter-incline bolster line controlling the move higher from the May 9 low seems to recommend bearish resumption is nearby. Quick protection is at 1.1996, the most recent swing high. The main layer of critical help lines up in the 1.1821-37 locale.

Now, hazard/compensate parameters seem worthy to downsize into the short EUR/USD exchange activated at 1.2407 after incomplete benefit was booked at the underlying target. The net section cost for general introduction is currently at 1.2276. A stop-misfortune will be initiated on an optional premise.





                                                                                                  Comex Gold Signal

Comex Gold Signal



  • Gold prices rose to the highest levels in two weeks on Thursday as the dollar retreated from four-and-a-half month highs as tame U.S. inflation data indicated that the Federal Reserve will stay on track with gradual rate hikes this year. Gold futures for June delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $9.10 or 0.69% to $1,322.00 a troy ounce by 09:26 AM ET (13:26 GMT), the highest level since April 25.
  • Natural gas futures were higher on Thursday, reaching their strongest levels of the session following the release of weekly storage data. Front-month U.S. natural gas futures jumped 5.3 cents, or around 1.9%, to $2.789 per million British thermal units (btu) by 10:44AM ET (1444GMT). Futures were at around $2.757 prior to the release of the supply data. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 89 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the week ended May 4, compared to forecasts for a gain of 81 bcf.
  • Oil prices touched another three-and-a-half-year high on Thursday, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cast further uncertainty about supply disruptions from the region. Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the U.S., at one point touched their highest since November 2014 at $78.00 per barrel. It was last at $77.25 barrel by 9:05AM ET (1305GMT), little changed on the day.


  • The U.S. has extended a public hearing on the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods to accommodate everyone who wants to testify, as both governments continue talks on avoiding a trade war. The hearings, initially set for May 15, will continue on May 16 and May 17 to give about 130 companies and industry groups a chance to share their views about the impact of the planned tariffs, according to the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office.
  • Mexico’s Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo on Thursday said he expected to find out within the next two days if a new NAFTA deal with the United States and Canada was possible in the short term. As time runs out to secure some kind of agreement, major differences remain between the three members of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
  • The amount of U.S. commercial paper grew in the week ended May 9 Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday. U.S. seasonally adjusted commercial paper outstanding rose $6.2 billion to $1.059 trillion in the latest week. Non-seasonally adjusted commercial paper outstanding – which some analysts consider a more reliable reading than the seasonally adjusted one since it has been distorted by the financial crisis – rose $2.1 billion to $1.114 trillion.



EUR/USD : Forex Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Technical Strategy: SHORT AT 1.2407

  • Euro posts biggest one-day pick up in a month and a half versus US Dollar
  • Rise seen as restorative inside more extensive down pattern resumption
  • Searching for significant chances to add to short introduction

The Euro figured out how to score the biggest one-day pick up in a month and a half against the US Dollar yet the overwhelming pattern predisposition keeps on favoring on-going shortcoming. Long haul situating recommends the single money denoted the resumption of 10 years in length down pattern with April’s month to month close.

From here, a day by day close over the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1937 opens the entryway for a retest of previous help in the 1.2055-92 territory (half level, September 8 high). On the other hand, a move beneath the graph expression point at 1.1825 makes ready for a test of the November 21 low at 1.1713.


Short EUR/USD introduction from 1.2407 stays in play. Benefit was set up for half of the underlying exchange when it hit its first target and the rest is dynamic, looking drawback finish. Chances to scale up position will be assessed as they introduce themselves.



Trading Volume Jumped to $144million

THE MALAYSIAN stock market has slumped following the shock opposition election victory in Wednesday’s poll which saw Mahathir Mohamad become the world’s oldest elected leader. Trading opened six per cent down on Thursday, following Mahathir Mohamad’s re-election as the country’s Prime Minister. Trading volume jumped to $144million, six times the average daily turnover of the last year.

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After hitting a record high in April amid an increase in foreign inflow, Malaysia’s benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI has gained 2.8 percent this year. The iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF, known as EWM, dropped 6 percent to $32.42, the lowest since December, as trading volume jumped. The NEXT FUNDS FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI ETF incorporated in Japan fell 2.1 percent.Malaysia’s stock market, which traded near a record high on the eve of the election, will become more volatile after Mahathir’s victory, Morgan Stanley analyst Aarti Shah wrote in a note. As results signaled a win for Mahathir, iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF based on the nation’s stocks dropped as much as 2.6 percent to the lowest since February.

Malaysia’s stock market will become more volatile after opposition leader Mahathir Mohamad won a stunning victory in the nation’s elections, ending outgoing Prime Minister Najib Razak’s rule.

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