Market Factors to Watch Friday April 20


Assuaged trade war fears and higher crude oil prices helped prop up Asian markets, with Bursa Malaysia hitting an all-time high. At the finish yesterday, the local stock market benchmark, the FBM KLCI, was at a historic high of 1,895.18 points, shooting past its previous all-time high of 1,892.62 points recorded in July 2014. Gains were generally broad-based with banks and commodity-related counters leading the way. Notably, foreigners were net buyers yesterday, buying some RM929mil worth of local shares.  Fears about trade tensions, specifically between the United States and China, and other geopolitical risks could re-emerge at any time.

Bursa Malaysia stock market news


Crude oil price has started to be associated with the magical US$100-per-barrel figure again, when not too long ago this number was hardly imaginable due largely to oversupply issues. At last look, the benchmark Brent crude oil was trading at US$74.33 per barrel, a level not seen in more than three years. The crucial psychological level of crude oil was US$72 per barrel which was breached last week. Now, technical indicators point toward the mid-US$80-per-barrel levels. The price of the black gold is being held up by falling inventories and expectations that production cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) will likely be maintained.



Malaysian palm oil futures declined on Thursday evening, with the market weighed down by forecasts of slowing demand growth ahead of a data release by cargo surveyors on Friday.  U.S. wheat futures edged lower on Friday but were set to post a weekly gain of nearly 4 percent as earlier forecasts of much needed rains were scaled back, heightening concerns about the condition of the U.S. crop. Oil prices on Thursday hit highs not seen since 2014, built on the ongoing drawdowns in global supply and as Saudi Arabia looks to push prices higher, though U.S. crude gave back gains in the afternoon to finish lower.

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EUR/USD- Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Technical Strategy: SHORT AT 1.2407

Euro floating at decade-old down pattern protection boundary

Medium-term situating insights at conceivable upside breakout

Holding short until the point when affirmation appears to be strategically judicious

The Euro is attempting to discover enduring heading against the US Dollar however longer-term situating keeps on arguing for an extensively bearish pattern inclination. In any case, the medium-term see conveys bullish components that may yet convey intense steady ramifications.

On the month to month graph, costs are roosted solidly at the highest point of a falling pattern channel characterizing the path bring down for about 10 years. A group of basic swing lows that filled in as help from 2008 to 2012 preceding at last being softened up 2014 has been recast as protection, fortifying the boundary topping additions.


A more proper place for the start of a noteworthy bearish inversion appears to be hard to envision. However, a gander at the day by day diagram uncovers an all around characterized Triangle design following a rise from November 2017 lows. The setup commonly goes before continuation, implying an upside breakout may be underway.

Most curiously, the determination of the Triangle in an upside break may make ready for a rupture of the long haul incline protection group. That has degree to open the entryway for a genuinely structural change in the Euro’s overwhelming direction that may characterize its way for a considerable length of time to come.


From a strategic point of view, picking to keep in play the second 50% of a short EUR/USD exchange from 1.2407 appears to be judicious after halfway benefit was set up for hitting the exchange’s first target. Affirmation of the Triangle on a nearby over 1.2448 would likewise discredit the position’s basic rationale, setting off a stop-misfortune.

Meanwhile, the arrangement of lower highs set from the twofold best beneath the 1.26 figure keeps on holding and hazard/compensate parameters propose there is space to sit back and watch if the heaviness of the long haul down pattern will win. On the off chance that it does, scale-up circumstances will be effectively sought after.







                                                                                          Comex Gold Signal





  • Gold prices moved lower on Tuesday, as a recovering dollar put downward pressure on the precious metal. Comex gold futures were down around $4.90, or 0.4%, at $1,345.80 a troy ounce by 11:00AM ET (15:00GMT), while the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last up 0.24% to 89.35. The inverse relationship in the two assets held in what appeared to be a reversal of the trade seen on Monday.
  • Oil was higher on Tuesday, as traders looked ahead to data on U.S. crude inventories and Middle East tensions waned. Crude oil futures rose 0.30% to $66.42 a barrel by 10:53 AM ET (14:53 GMT). Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the U.S., was up 0.49% $71.77 a barrel. Industry group the American Petroleum Institute is due to release its weekly report at 4:30PM ET (20:30GMT).
  • Natural gas futures drifted lower on Tuesday, one day after hitting a more than four-week high thanks to lingering winter-like weather conditions. Front-month U.S. natural gas futures fell around 1.0 cent, or roughly 0.4%, to $2.742 per million British thermal units (btu) by 9:00AM ET (1300GMT). It touched its highest level since March 14 at $2.779 in the last session.


  • San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams on Tuesday said he expects U.S. inflation to rise to the U.S. central bank’s 2-percent goal this year and stay at or above that goal for “another couple of years.” To keep the economy from overheating, he said at Banco de España in Madrid, the Fed needs to keep raising interest rates.
  • China will scrap a limit on foreign ownership of automotive ventures by 2022 in a major policy shift to open up the world’s biggest car market, even as trade tensions simmer between Washington and Beijing. In a move welcomed by Germany’s powerful car industry, China’s state planner said on Tuesday it would remove foreign ownership caps for companies making fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in 2018, for makers of commercial vehicles in 2020, and the wider car market by 2022.
  • The International Monetary Fund predicted the world economy’s strongest upswing since 2011 will continue for the next two years, but warned the seeds of its demise have already been planted. The fund on Tuesday left its forecasts for global growth this year and next at the 3.9 percent it estimated in January and raised its outlook for the U.S. as Republican tax cuts take effect. Beyond that horizon, it was more pessimistic, projecting global growth will fade as central banks tighten monetary policy, the U.S. fiscal stimulus subsides, and China’s gradual slowdown continues.



Malaysian Stocks Remained Positive

KLCI was up 1.73 points or 0.09% to 1,880.49, the highest since July 17, 2014′s close of 1,883. The broader market was slightly firmer with 506 gainers, 424 losers and 394 counters unchanged. Turnover was 3.09 billion shares valued at RM2.79bil. China and Hong Kong markets were under pressure after the US banned American companies from selling components to Chinese telecom equipment maker ZTE Corp, Reuters reported.
The blue-chip CSI300 index closed down 1.6% at 3,748.64, its lowest since August 2017, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.4% to 3,066.80, its lowest closing level since May 2017. 


Bursa Malaysia stock market news


The Malaysia stock market moved higher again on Monday, one session after it had halted the six-day winning streak in which it had advanced more than 50 points or 2.7 percent. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index now rests just beneath the 1,880-point plateau and it may see additional support on Tuesday.The KLCI finished modestly higher on Monday following gains from the financials, industrials and telecoms.For the day, the index picked up 10.29 points or 0.55 percent to finish at the daily high of 1,878.76 after moving as low as 1,867.21. Volume was 2.67 billion shares worth 2.06 billion ringgit. There were 518 decliners and 409 gainers.

Stocks remained positive in the afternoon after President Donald Trump said he intends to nominate Richard Clarida as Federal Reserve Vice Chairman. Crude oil prices fell Monday after data showed the shale sector is expected to rise by 125,000 barrels a day in May. June WTI oil settled at $66.22/bbl on Nymex, down $1.17 or 1.7 percent. Prices tumbled from last week’s three-year peak.





                                                                                                  Comex Gold Signal





  • Gold prices rose to the day’s highs on Monday, propelled higher by the softer dollar which weakened as fears of an escalating conflict in Syria faded. Gold futures for June delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.90 or 0.29% to $1,351.90 a troy ounce by 10:08 AM ET (14:08 GMT). Market sentiment was buoyed by relief that the missile strikes on Syria in response to a suspected chemical-weapon attack on civilians did not prompt a response from Russia, Syria’s main ally.
  • Crude prices sank lower on Monday as increasing shale production and an apparent lull in Middle East tensions convinced traders to take profits after strong weekly gains. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 56 cents, or about 0.8%, to $66.83 a barrel by 10:20AM ET (14:20GMT). Meanwhile, Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the U.S., traded down 50 cents, or roughly 0.7%, to $72.08 a barrel.
  • Natural gas futures started the week in positive territory on Monday, hitting a more than four-week high, as lingering winter-like weather was seen delaying the official start of the storage injection season. Front-month U.S. natural gas futures rallied 3.4 cents, or around 1.2%, to $2.769 per million British thermal units (btu) by 9:25AM ET (1325GMT). It touched its highest level since March 14 at $2.777.


  • The Federal Reserve will likely gradually raise interest rates three or four times in total this year and could aim to eventually raise the policy rate to about 3 percent, New York Fed President William Dudley said in a television interview on Monday. “The markets are seeing that three is possible, four is possible, but five or six seems to me is quite unlikely,” Dudley, an influential outgoing Fed policymaker, said on CNBC. He added: “Three percent is a reasonable starting point in terms of thinking about what ‘neutral’ might be over the long run.”
  • Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan on Monday forecast falling unemployment, rising wages, and solid economic growth this year and next, but warned that without structural reforms, future growth will suffer. Policies that increase immigration, allow the U.S. to take advantage of globalization and trade, reduce government debt growth and boost educational attainment are among changes the U.S. needs, Kaplan said in an essay he published ahead of a speech in Miami.
  • The global economy is set to grow at a faster clip than anticipated in 2018, due mostly to lower tax rates in the United States, but tensions over trade threaten to derail months of synchronized global expansion, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said on Monday.







                                                                                                 Comex Gold Signal




  • Gold rose on Friday, as the dollar wavered around the unchanged mark and Middle Eastern tensions remained in the back of investors’ minds. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, inched up 0.01% to 89.50 as of 10:32 AM ET (14:32 GMT). The dollar struggled for direction after rallying on Thursday. The greenback rose after the latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve showed that the central bankers were confident in the strength of the economy and rising inflation but was unmoved as trade tensions weighed.
  • Crude prices moved higher in mid-morning trade on Friday, heading for weekly gains of more than 8%, as traders digested another positive report on market stabilization. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 20 cents, or about 0.3%, to $64.27 a barrel by 10:27AM ET (14:27GMT). Meanwhile, Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the U.S., traded up 34 cents, or roughly 0.5%, to $72.36 a barrel.
  • Saudi Aramco is the world’s most profitable oil company, Bloomberg reported on Friday, but its huge earnings and cash flows may still fail to justify its desired $2 trillion valuation. Financial performance at Aramco has long been one of the best kept secrets in the oil industry but as the company prepares for a long-awaited initial public offering (IPO) this year or next it needs to tell investors what it earns and how it operates.


  • Inflation data earlier this week that showed price pressures increasing were unsurprising, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Friday as he downplayed the significance for monetary policy. “Year-over-year core CPI is now above 2 percent but it was also above 2 percent all during 2016, and so it’s really only come back to the level that it was in that earlier period when interest rates were much lower,” Bullard told reporters following a speech at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri.
  • The Federal Reserve will probably need to raise interest rates at least three more times this year in the face of a robust U.S. economy, even while possible trade disruptions pose risks, a top Fed policymaker said on Friday. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, in a speech at the Greater Boston Chamber Economic Outlook Breakfast, painted an optimistic picture of strong U.S. job growth, a small rise in inflation, and above-average economic growth. But he also flagged recent trade tariffs and threats of more as a short-term risk, and argued that fiscal stimulus could pose longer-term problems.
  • German companies are experiencing barriers to trade not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, a survey by the DIHK Chambers of Industry and Commerce showed on Friday. Some 40 percent of the 2,100 firms surveyed said they experienced higher barriers to doing business abroad over the last 12-month period, up from 31 percent in the 2017 survey.



Forex News : EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP News and Talking Points

- EURGBP exchanges at a ten-month low as the single cash keeps on battling against Sterling.

- Trade Weighted Sterling at post-Brexit high.
EURGBP Chart Confirms Break Lower

A blend of a solid Sterling complex and a weaker Euro has seen EURGBP drop to levels last observed in May 2017 with additionally falls conceivable. UK exchange weighted sterling hit its most abnormal amount since June 2016, while short-dated UK government security yields keep on hitting multi-year highs. The 2-year plated exchanges with a yield of 0.936% contrasted with a 2-year German security yield of – 0.560%, a differential of just shy of 1.5%. The positive UK/German yield differential is supporting Sterling in a universe of low loan fees and is being driven by desires that the bank of England will climb rates at its next arrangement meeting on May 10. Current currency showcase markers demonstrate a 70% likelihood of a 0.25% UK rate climb one month from now. In examination the market is right now demonstrating a 96.85% that the ECB will keep loan costs unaltered at its next gathering on April 26.

IG Client Sentiment information indicate retail brokers stay long EURGBP with minimal net positional change in the course of the most recent week. While this information tosses out a blended exchanging signal, additionally decreases in EURGBP may see merchants change their situating, adding to the move.

Sterling merchants ought to know about essential UK occupations and wages information discharged on Tuesday seventeenth, and a huge number of swelling, retail and maker costs out on Wednesday eighteenth. Any further constriction of the swelling compensation spread will be invited by the national bank as the UK retail area keeps on misery.

EURGBPEURGBP is as of now focusing on the April 25-26 twofold at 0.85310, preceding 0.8320 and the April 18 2017 low of 0.83133. To the upside, the December 8 and January 25 lows around 0.86950 give the primary level of protection.

EURGBP Price Chart Daily Timeframe (March 20 – April 13, 2018)



Daily KLSE Update

Blue chips closed in the red on Friday, with MISC, Petronas Chemicals and Astro weighing on the FBM KLCI but the broader market displayed more resilience. At 5pm, the FBM KLCI was down 5.15 points or 0.27% to 1,868.47. Turnover was lower at 2.72 billion shares valued at RM2.19bil. Advancers led decliners nearly two to one or 601 gainers to 325 losers and 387.MISC lost 16 sen to RM7 and erased 1.28 points from the KLCI. It hit an intra-day low of RM6.96 , the lowest since March 20, after it was downgraded by a research house. Petronas Chemicals fell eight sen to RM8.40 and wiped put 1.15 points. Petronas Gas lost 18 sen to RM18.02 but Petronas Daganag added 12 sen to RM25.48. Astro’s rebound was short-lived, faling 11 sen to RM1.98 and wiping out 1.03 points.

13 - 4

The pay-TV operator will pay US$22.5mil (RM87.2mil) cash to Measat Global Bhd to use the transponder capacity on the Measat-3b satellite. KL Kepong was the top loser on news that crude palm oil (CPO) tax for May has been raised to 5% from 0% currently. It fell 42 sen to RM25.56, Genting Plantations lost 16 sen to RM9.92 while PPB Group was flat at RM18.50 and IOI Corp added two sen to RM4.79.


The FBM KLCI index gained 11.27 points or 0.61% on Tuesday. The Finance Index increased 0.57% to 18100.5 points, the Properties Index up 1.60% to 1073.19 points and the Plantation Index rose 2.03% to 8100.99 points. The market traded within a range of 10.37 points between an intra-day high of 1857.15 and a low of 1846.78 during the session. Actively traded stocks include UMWOG, HUAAN, SKH, SAPNRG, HIBISCS-WC, SUMATEC, PWORTH, PUC, HIBISCS and UCREST. Trading volume increased to 3733.63 mil shares worth RM2709.66 mil as compared to Monday’s 2219.15 mil shares worth RM2106.01 mil.


Asian shares on positive market sentiment

The FBM KLCI closed 2.54 points or 0.1% higher with Asian shares on positive market sentiment following news that a China-US trade war is unlikely.

Reuters reported that Asian share markets sprang higher on Tuesday as reports of behind-the-scenes talks between the US and China rekindled hopes that a damaging trade war could be averted. Reuters, quoting a person familiar with the discussions, reported that White House officials are asking China to cut tariffs on imported cars, allow foreign majority ownership of financial services firms and buy more US-made semiconductors



It was also reported that Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on Monday pledged to maintain trade negotiations and ease access to American businesses.At Bursa Malaysia today, the KLCI closed at 1,862.45 at 5pm after trading between 1,861.56 and 1,867.11.Across Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 2.65%, South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.61% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 0.79%. In Malaysia, Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd vice president of research Vincent Lau told theedgemarkets.com: “I see a selected mix of heavyweight stocks [lifting the index] along with the regional peers.” A glance across Bursa Malaysia’s website showed top gainers included KLCI-linked stocks like Nestle (M) Bhd, PPB Group Bhd and Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd. Other notable gainers included rubber glove manufacturers Top Glove Corp Bhd and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd.

Bursa Malaysia ended the day on a firmer note tracking key Asian markets as trade war fears eased on reports of talks between the US and China. At 5pm, the 30-stock index closed at 1,862.45, up 2.54 points. The market traded within a range of 5.55 points between an intra-day high of 1,867.11 and a low of 1,861.56 during the session.  Movers in the KLCI component stocks included Petronas Chemicals which pushed the index up by 1.873. Petronas Chemicals rose 13 sen to RM8.23. Nestle lifted the index higher by 0.718 while CIMB Group nudged the index up by 0.664.





                                                                                       Comex Gold Signal




  • WTI crude oil prices settled at eight-week highs as the prospect of an extension to OPEC-led production cuts into 2019 overshadowed data showing the number of U.S. oil rigs rose to a three-year year. On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for May delivery rose 2.46% to settle at $65.88 a barrel, while on London’s Intercontinental Exchange, Brent rose 2.22% to trade at $70.44 a barrel.
  • Gold prices rallied to a more than one-month high on strong safe-haven demand amid escalating U.S.-China tensions as the prospect of a trade war heats up. Gold futures for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $21.50, or 1.59%, to $1,348.50 a troy ounce. Gold is set to notch its biggest weekly win in more than one month.
  • European Union leaders called on U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday to make permanent an EU exemption from U.S. metal import duties, saying they reserved the right to respond “in a proportionate manner” to protect the bloc’s interests. The 40-day reprieve granted by Washington was like U.S. President Donald Trump pointing a gun at Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron said at a summit in Brussels.


  • The United States has flouted trade rules with an inquiry into intellectual property and China will defend its interests, Vice Premier Liu He told U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in a telephone call on Saturday, Chinese state media reported. The call between Mnuchin and Liu, a confidante of President Xi Jinping, was the highest-level contact between the two governments since U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans for tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese goods on Thursday.
  • Mario Draghi’s success in reviving the euro-area economy could, ironically, delay the European Central Bank’s exit from extraordinary stimulus. The currency bloc’s broadest economic expansion in its history is drawing workers back to the job market and spurring companies to invest to replace aging equipment. Governments — with varying degrees of reluctance — have even pushed some through reforms aimed at improving productivity.
  • For China to seek high economic growth at a time of accumulating financial risk could bring the country more risk, a senior Chinese Communist Party official said on Saturday. China should focus less on “high-speed” growth in the short run and more on “quality” growth, said Yang Weimin, deputy director of the Office of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs.


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